Portfolio Perspectives Q4 2026
Summary video highlighting the top points from the Q4 2026 Portfolio Perspectives commentary
The sharp increase in global bond yields has caught the attention of investors. While the rise started early in the year, it accelerated in the third quarter when the US 10 Year Treasury yield crossed 5.3%, a level not seen in 19 years. While multiple factors impact bond yields including monetary policy, inflation and economic growth, the recent move was almost entirely driven by an increase in real yields. So markets seem to be recalibrating the cost of capital as demand for capital increase on the heels of strong economic growth and massive AI related capital expenditures.
Central banks across the global have also shifted to more hawkish monetary footing with a number of banks, including the US Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan all hiking in 2026. At the same time, inflation remains elevated with higher energy prices playing a significant role in higher headline inflation. This all suggests investors could be facing a structurally higher yield environment for the period ahead. The good news is that these higher yields have restored value across a number of fixed income asset classes including shorter duration investment grade bonds and emerging markets debt.
If we analyze historical relationships, living in a higher rate regime can have implications on portfolio construction. The decade following the global financial crisis ushered in a period of low inflation, low growth and low interest rates as individuals and economies delivered. This period, shown in yellow on the chart, resulted in negative correlations between stocks and bonds. But as yields have risen over the past five years, that relationship has flipped to positive. This is why we believe that in addition to duration exposure, investors should maintain healthy allocations to other fixed income return drivers and diversifiers such as corporate credit and non US bonds and also consider asset classes such as infrastructure and commodities that have historically acted as a diversifier to both stocks and bonds.
For further insight on these and other topics, please see this quarter’s Portfolio Perspectives.
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